Huge changes are on the way – starting with another important election.
Andy Burnham is the new MP for Makerfield(Image: Sean Hansford / MEN)
Andy Burnham has won a seat in Parliament after a huge victory in the Makerfield by-election.
The newly elected Labour MP easily beat Reform UK candidate Robert Kenyon, by a margin of nearly 10,000 votes.
Initial polls when the by-election was first called suggested that it could be close, but in the end Mr Burnham finished well ahead of his political rivals, and picked up 54 per cent of total votes.
It marks the end of weeks of campaigning in the constituency-based south of Wigan, and the start of the next political race in Greater Manchester for Mr Burnham’s old job as mayor.
Mr Burnham becoming an MP marks the end of an era for Greater Manchester, and for the role of mayor which he had held for nearly a decade, since 2017.
His return to Parliament has sparked uncertainty about what happens next, who could be the next mayor of Greater Manchester, and when the vote for the region’s next mayor will take place.
The Manchester Evening News (M.E.N) takes a look at what will happen next.
When is the election for Greater Manchester mayor happening?
The Greater Manchester Combined Authority (GMCA) has confirmed July 30 as the date for the mayor election. An official election notice was put out by the GMCA on Friday morning (June 19), just after 11am.
It will be a massive operation across all ten boroughs of Greater Manchester, with 2.1 million people registered to vote in the contest, and around 400,000 expected to do so by post.
The amount of money needed to run the election is likely to be substantial, with the last mayoral vote in 2024 costing £4.7m.
The deadline to register to vote in the mayoral election is midnight on Tuesday, July 14.
Counting for mayoral elections usually takes place the day after polling day, so the result should be announced on Friday, July 31.
The mayoral election touches all corners of Greater Manchester, so expect to see candidates battling across the city-region.
Why is Andy Burnham no longer Greater Manchester mayor?
Becoming an MP disqualifies Mr Burnham from being Greater Manchester mayor, he can’t do both jobs at the same time.
When Mr Burnham was first elected as the region’s mayor in 2017, the job took on the responsibilities of the former role of Police and Crime Commissioner.
The law states that a mayor with Police and Crime Commissioner functions is disqualified from being a Police and Crime Commissioner when elected as an MP. That is set out in the Police Reform and Social Responsibility Act 2011.
It means being an MP automatically disqualifies someone from being mayor of Greater Manchester, according to guidance issued by the GMCA.
So the moment Mr Burnham was elected as MP for Makerfield in the early hours of Friday morning (June 19), he stopped being the mayor of Greater Manchester, ending a nearly ten-year stint in the region’s top political job.
There’s no requirement for Mr Burnham to formally step down from being mayor, because he stopped holding the job automatically after his election as an MP.
What voting system will be used to elect Greater Manchester’s next mayor?
The government has just changed the way mayors are elected – and it is already causing arguments.
In the last election for Greater Manchester mayor in 2024, the first-past-the-post system was used. This is the same way MPs are elected – whoever gets the most votes wins.
But the voting system for mayors has been changed by the government to a method known as supplementary voting.
The change came into force on June 18, after passing through Parliament in the English Devolution and Community Empowerment Act.
It could have a huge impact on deciding who becomes the next mayor of Greater Manchester. Voters choose a first and second preference among candidates in supplementary voting.
If no candidate gets 50 per cent of vote in the first round of voting, a second round of voting is held between the two candidates with the most votes.
At that stage, secondary votes are added to the mix, and could flip the entire result on its head.
One potential scenario could see party A win more votes in the first round of voting, but still go on to lose the mayoral by-election if party B picks up more second preference votes in round two.
Reform UK said earlier this week that the change was a ‘cynical attempt’ to sway the race in Labour’s favour. Labour didn’t comment when asked about the claims from Reform.
The change in voting system was debated in the House of Lords on June 16.
Lord Hayward, a Conservative, said: “Let us be honest about this order. It is not normal to identify who would be affected by a particular change of law, but this order is an attempt to prevent Reform winning the possible Greater Manchester mayoralty by-election.
“There is no other justification for the haste with which this order has been introduced, other than that it solves the Labour Party’s problems and prevents Reform winning a mayoralty.”
Baroness Taylor of Stevenage, for Labour, responded: “The Government were very clear during the passage of the English Devolution and Community Empowerment Act that we intended to make this change for mayoral and PCC elections after May 2026. There is now the potential for such an election; I will come on to more about that in a moment. We are therefore acting to deliver on our commitments made to Parliament.”
Who might stand to be the next Greater Manchester mayor?
Being Greater Manchester mayor was a job which elevated Mr Burnham’s profile and helped him build a powerbase of support across the city-region, which has become the fastest growing part of the UK economy.
It remains one of the top political jobs in the country, and the contest to replace Andy Burnham is likely to be fierce.
When Mr Burnham was first elected as Greater Manchester mayor in 2017, he won a whopping 63 per cent of the vote. After that he was re-elected twice, in 2021 and 2024, and both times he was well ahead of his nearest rivals.
Labour never looked like losing the role under him. But there are signs that the next election for Greater Manchester mayor will be the closest race it has ever been.
With Mr Burnham now busy in Westminster and likely to challenge Keir Starmer to become prime minister, Labour faces a huge challenge to keep hold of Greater Manchester mayor job.
It comes at a time when other political parties such as Reform UK and the Green Party recently made massive gains in Greater Manchester in the local elections in May. They will be eyeing the job of mayor and hoping to make a serious challenge to win it.
In addition, the new voting system that has just been brought in could add to the unpredictability of the race.
All the rumoured Greater Manchester mayor candidates
Conservatives
Nadim Muslim’s name was mentioned by sources within the Conservatives as a potential candidate, but many stressed that there would be a ‘thorough’ selection process before a name is announced.
Councillor Muslim is leader of the Conservative group at Bolton council and chair of Greater Manchester Conservatives, so has connections across the region and leadership experience.
He is a councillor based in the Bromley Cross ward in Bolton.
Green Party
Three names from the Green Party were put forward to stand for Greater Manchester mayor.
The list included Geraldine Coggins, a councillor who is leader of the Green Party group on Trafford council. Laurence Blackwell-Jones in Manchester was on the list too, who co-founded Greater Manchester Tenants Union. The third name was Ashley Trigg, who is based in the Green Party’s Wigan and Leigh branch.
Sources said Councillor Coggins was considered the favourite to get the backing of Green Party members in Greater Manchester because of her ‘extensive’ political and leadership experience.
Labour
Bev Craig is the likely candidate. The Labour councillor has served as leader of Manchester council since 2021, when she became the first woman to hold the post.
She’s experienced in GMCA matters, having been helping run the show while Andy Burnham was campaigning in Makerfield.
Salford mayor Paul Dennett had long been considered another potential candidate for the next Greater Manchester mayor, but it’s understood he will not be standing in the election for mayor.
Lib Dems
Rumours within the Lib Dems are that Richard Kilpatrick is set to be the candidate. He’s a councillor in Didsbury and sits on the Greater Manchester Police, Fire and Crime Panel at the GMCA.
He has also been appointed to several committees at Manchester council on matters such as planning, resources, and auditing.
The Lib Dems have sizeable support in some areas of Greater Manchester, including in Stockport where the party runs the council.
Reform UK
Dan Barker could be the choice for Reform UK, sources within the party have said. He was the Reform candidate in the 2024 mayoral election so has done the dance before and has the experience of running a mayoral campaign.
Dan Barker is a coordinator for Reform UK across Greater Manchester and was once a member of the Conservatives before leaving the party to join Reform.
Councillor Sian Astley, leader of Reform UK group on Manchester council, has also been tipped as a potential candidate.
She was first elected to Manchester council in the Baguley ward at the local elections in May, and leads the seven-strong group of Reform councillors in the city.
Asked if she would stand as the candidate, she told the Manchester Evening News: “Baguley is my priority, I’ve not gone into politics to use Baguley as a stepping stone to other things.”
Restore Britain
Marlon West is rumoured to be in the running to be the Restore Britain candidate.
He’s a child exploitation campaigner and has had a busy few weeks working on the campaign trail for Restore Britain in Makerfield supporting the party’s candidate, Rebecca Shepherd.
What’s next for Andy Burnham now he’s an MP?
Mr Burnham is expected to speak to Sir Keir Starmer over the next few days to try to persuade him to stand down as Prime Minister.
Some of Mr Burnham’s campaign messaging being shared in the run up to the Makerfield focused not just on the constituency, but on a promise to bring about a ‘new path for Britain’, hinting towards his wider ambitions.
Now he has been elected as an MP in the House of Commons, there are different paths Mr Burnham could take to become prime minister.
The least chaotic route for both the Labour Party and the country could be a transition of power between Sir Keir and Mr Burnham.
Facing growing pressure from Labour MPs demanding a change of leadership, Mr Burnham could force a deal with the current Prime Minister to hand over the keys to Downing Street, setting out a timeline for an orderly change.
This option would avoid a potentially damaging Labour leadership campaign, which comes with the risk of Mr Burnham, Sir Keir and other senior Labour figures picking sides and squabbling for power.
The other route would be if the current Prime Minister steps down as leader of the Labour Party, or if a Labour MP with enough support decided to launch a leadership challenge against Keir Starmer.
Both scenarios would trigger a leadership contest within the party.
If Sir Keir resigned as Labour leader, any of the party’s MPs including Mr Burnham could nominate themselves to take over if they had the backing of enough colleagues.
They would need support from 20 per cent of their colleagues in the House of Commons – that’s 81 sitting Labour MPs – according to party rules.
Several MPs could put themselves forward as long as they have enough support.
Nominations from five per cent of Constituency Labour Parties is also a requirement, or three affiliates making up 5 per cent of affiliated membership, including two trade unions.
If Keir Starmer decides to continue as prime minister, a Labour MP could decide to launch a challenge against him.
They would also need the backing of 81 Labour MPs to trigger a leadership election, and would be up against other MPs with enough support to run.
Once the leadership contest is triggered, a vote takes place among Labour Party members and affiliates.
Labour leadership contests usually last months before a winner is announced.
Mr Burnham could choose to challenge Keir Starmer and launch a leadership election, but he would still need to convince enough Labour MPs and party members to support him if he is to go on and win.
The Prime Minister said on Friday morning (June 19) that he would stand in any potential Labour leadership race.
The timing of a Labour leadership contest is something to pay close attention to.
Mr Burnham allies have warned that Labour could lose the Greater Manchester mayoral election on July 30 if Sir Keir does not step down or set out a timetable to go.
Senior members of Mr Burnham’s team told the Manchester Evening News that if Sir Keir has not made an announcement that he is stepping down, it will appear to voters that the Prime Minister is on the ballot and then Labour could lose the mayoral elections.
Sources speaking the MEN called on the PM to make an announcement that he is going because there is a ‘visceral reaction’ to him. “He doesn’t need to say he is going straight away, just that he is planning to go. He needs to set out a timetable”, the source said.
